Most years, a mock schedule is just a way to poke fun at draft culture, pair road trips with concerts, and highlight Cincinnati’s unlucky history with Thursday night divisional games. But this year, given the Bengals’ roster stability and the upheaval across the AFC North, the order of games could genuinely shape their playoff chances.
Welcome to Mock Schedule 2026, where the joke count is lower but the stakes are higher.
A wave of first-year head coaches (or veteran coaches in new situations) often struggles early in the season. For the first time in years, the AFC North is full of such storylines. The Steelers, Browns, and Ravens all have new leadership, while games against the Falcons, Titans, and Dolphins bring the total to more than half of Cincinnati’s opponents featuring new coaches.
Data from the last five years shows that first-time NFL head coaches have a .389 winning percentage in their first six games, compared to .518 for the rest of the league. (There are exceptions, like Ben Johnson’s Bears and Liam Coen’s Jaguars last year, both starting 4-2 and winning division titles.) Later in the season, first-time coaches also tend to fade, with a .377 winning percentage in games 13-17, though interim coaches skew those numbers.
The Bengals, by contrast, return all 11 offensive starters and an experienced coaching staff. That continuity becomes a major edge if they face those new-coach teams early in the schedule—especially divisional games.
Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis charted the easiest schedules in the NFL for 2026 based on sportsbook win totals. Cincinnati ranked third, a clear tier above the middle of the pack:
NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2026!
5 easiest: Lions, Saints, Bengals, Browns, Jets
5 hardest: Rams, Cowboys, Panthers, Dolphins, Cardinals
Last year, each of the top three easiest projected schedules exceeded their win total, while five of the six hardest fell short. BetMGM currently sets Cincinnati’s over-under at 9.5 wins.
For the mock schedule, here’s the best possible scenario for the Bengals—not a prediction, but an ideal draw considering competitive advantage, road-trip fun, and trends.
**Week 1 (Sept. 13): vs. Steelers**
Cincinnati hopes “Open in Orange” finally brings good luck. In 2024, that opener brought a shocking loss to Jerod Mayo’s Patriots, a defeat that helped keep them out of the playoffs. Getting a rival at home in Week 1, when both teams have new dynamics, could set a different tone.
*(The article continues with additional week-by-week mock matchups, focusing on early-season division games and favorable road trips, but the core message remains: schedule order matters more than usual for the Bengals.)*